Is the USA in a recession? Nobody has known as one but, though the newest GDP numbers out final week confirmed two consecutive adverse quarters. The U.S. financial system contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, the Bureau of Financial Evaluation reported final week. That met a broadly accepted rule of thumb for figuring out a recession, though it will not be recognized for months if we’re formally in a single. That is as a result of the official arbiter in such issues is the Nationwide Bureau of Financial Analysis, which does not use that recession definition . Slightly, it defines one as “a big decline in financial exercise that’s unfold throughout the financial system and lasts quite a lot of months.” Some not too long ago launched knowledge exhibits issues is likely to be somewhat extra optimistic than anticipated. Commonplace Chartered in a late July report wrote that stronger-than-expected U.S. retail gross sales, launched in mid-July, signifies the strong job market continues to assist family consumption. However, although markets have rebounded, the financial institution’s strategists urged that they had been poised for under a “technical rebound” provided that investor positioning had turned extraordinarily bearish. “Positioning and sentiment stay bearish, which, as a contrarian sign, might assist prolong the restoration in danger property within the close to time period. The larger query: Is that this rebound sustainable?” the financial institution’s analysts wrote. Nonetheless, the story may not be full — there’s a variety of indicators that is used to measure the well being of the financial system. Steve Brice, chief funding strategist at Commonplace Chartered, is watching 14 of them, 4 of which he says are “flashing pink.” These are the 14 recession indicators that Commonplace Chartered’s Brice is watching: 1. Yield curve inversion: U.S. 10-year versus 2-year authorities bond yield curve [flashing red] 2. Yield curve inversion: U.S. 30-year versus 3-month yield curve 3. U.S. bear market, outlined as greater than 20% drop from a current excessive 4. Convention board U.S. main indicator: It tracks 10 elements, together with manufacturing, unemployment insurance coverage claims and credit score index. 5. Fed fund charge: Goal fed fund/fund impartial charge ratio. The latter indicators a degree that’s thought of neither supportive nor restrictive for development. 6. Labor knowledge: Jobless claims 7. Labor knowledge: 1-year change in unemployment charge 8. Labor knowledge: U.S. momentary assist companies payrolls 9. Shopper spending: College of Michigan client confidence index [flashing red] 10. Shopper spending: Convention board client confidence [flashing red] 11. Shopper spending: Actual private consumption expenditure 12. Enterprise sentiment: ISM manufacturing index 13. Enterprise sentiment: ISM new orders/inventories ratio [flashing red] 14. Company credit score spreads Information correct as at July 28. — CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this report.